Halo sobat Jago Saham!
Dalam dunia trading saham, ada berbagai alat dan teknik yang dapat membantu investor mengidentifikasi level support dan resistance. Salah satu alat yang sering digunakan dalam analisis teknikal adalah Fibonacci retracement. Dalam panduan ini, kita akan menjelajahi bagaimana Fibonacci retracement dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi level support dan resistance dalam trading saham.
Fibonacci retracement adalah metode analisis teknikal yang digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi level-level potensial di mana harga saham dapat “berbalik” atau “retracement” sebelum melanjutkan tren utama. Teknik ini didasarkan pada urutan Fibonacci, yang merupakan deret angka matematis yang sering muncul dalam alam dan dinamakan dari nama matematikawan Italia abad pertengahan, Leonardo Fibonacci.
Deret Fibonacci adalah deret angka yang dimulai dengan 0 dan 1, dan setiap angka selanjutnya adalah penjumlahan dua angka sebelumnya. Deret ini memiliki pola yang berulang, yaitu 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, dan seterusnya.
Menurut Fibonacci retracement, titik pembalikan yang paling umum terjadi pada level 38,20%, 50%, dan 61,80% sebagai level retracement yang potensial. Ini berarti bahwa ketika harga saham mengalami koreksi dari tren utama, kemungkinan akan berhenti atau berbalik arah pada salah satu level-level ini. Level 50% tidak berasal dari deret Fibonacci, tetapi dari teori bahwa rata-rata pergerakan harga saham akan retrace setengah dari pergerakan sebelumnya. Level 23,60% juga bisa terjadi, tetapi lebih jarang dan perlu perhatian khusus karena terjadi relatif cepat setelah titik pembalikan.
Secara umum, level support dan resistance yang diidentifikasi oleh Fibonacci retracement dianggap lebih kuat jika bertepatan dengan moving average utama seperti moving average 50 atau 200 hari. Selalu ingat bahwa garis retracement Fibonacci mewakili level support dan resistance potensial. Artinya, garis-garis tersebut menunjukkan level harga di mana Anda harus waspada, bukan sinyal beli atau jual yang pasti.
Level retracement sebesar 61.8% adalah salah satu level yang paling penting dalam Fibonacci Retracement. Ini dikenal sebagai “Golden Ratio” atau “Phi” (φ) dan sering dianggap sebagai level di mana retracement paling sering berhenti sebelum harga kembali bergerak sesuai dengan tren utama. Dalam banyak kasus, para trader menganggap level 61.8% ini sebagai level retracement terkuat.
Contoh Penggunaan Fibonacci Retracement
Mari kita lihat contoh penggunaan Fibonacci retracement dalam analisis teknikal saham:
Dalam contoh ini, kita akan menggunakan saham “BBRI” sebagai ilustrasi:
Langkah 1: Identifikasi Uptrend Pertama, kita harus mengidentifikasi saham yang sedang mengalami uptrend. Misalkan kita telah mengamati saham BBRI yang telah menunjukkan tren naik yang kuat selama beberapa waktu.
Langkah 2: Pilih Titik Awal dan Titik Akhir Kemudian, kita menggunakan Fibonacci retracement dari titik awal (swing low) ke titik akhir (swing high) untuk mengidentifikasi level-level retracement potensial.
Langkah 3: Terapkan Fibonacci Retracement Setelah memilih titik awal dan titik akhir, kita menerapkan Fibonacci Retracement ke grafik saham BBRI. Salah satu level retracement yang akan terlihat adalah 38.2%, yang merupakan level yang sering digunakan dalam analisis Fibonacci.
Langkah 4: Analisis Hasilnya Pada grafik di atas, kita dapat melihat bahwa harga saham mengalami tren naik yang signifikan dan saat mencapai level retracement Fibonacci 38.2%, harga tersebut mulai menunjukkan tanda-tanda koreksi dan kemungkinan akan berbalik naik sesuai dengan tren utama.
Dalam contoh ini, harga saham kemudian mengalami retracement hingga sekitar level 38.2% berfungsi sebagai level support yang potensial. Terlihat juga bahwa level 38.2% berdekatan dengan Moving Average 50 hari. Trader dapat mempertimbangkan untuk memasuki posisi beli karena harga kemungkinan akan berbalik naik sesuai dengan tren naik yang kuat sebelumnya.
Penggunaan Fibonacci retracement dapat menjadi alat yang berguna dalam analisis teknikal saham untuk mengidentifikasi level-level support dan resistance potensial. Namun, seperti semua alat analisis teknikal, penting untuk menggunakan Fibonacci retracement bersama dengan analisis tambahan dan konfirmasi sebelum membuat keputusan trading. Dengan pemahaman yang tepat, Fibonacci retracement dapat membantu sobat mengambil keputusan yang lebih baik dalam trading saham.
Jangan lupa untuk terus mempelajari dan berlatih menggunakan alat ini untuk meningkatkan keterampilan sobat dalam analisis teknikal. Semoga panduan ini membantu sobat dalam perjalanan trading Anda!
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